Ukraine’s leadership and some U.S. officials are making unrealistic, even delusional claims about how to end the war—specifically the idea that “the only path is Russia being compelled to retreat economically, politically, and militarily.” Analysts compare this to a badly beaten fighter demanding victory: detached from battlefield reality.
They note that such maximalist demands are impossible for Ukraine to enforce, while Russia actually has the military power to shape outcomes. Continuing to insist on total Russian withdrawal, they warn, will only lead to more Ukrainian casualties.
The discussion then shifts to the leaked 28-point U.S. peace plan. Several provisions are described as total non-starters for Moscow:
Point 6: Limiting Ukraine’s armed forces to 600,000—far higher than Russia would ever accept for a neighboring state that has fought a proxy war on NATO’s behalf.
Point 10: A U.S. security guarantee for Ukraine. Analysts argue Russia would never accept this, because Washington has repeatedly violated past agreements and Moscow can already dictate the battlefield without such arrangements.
Points 13–14: Using frozen Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine and reintegrating Russia into the Western-led economic system. Russia rejects both: they want their frozen assets returned and see no advantage in rejoining Western institutions like the G7 now that BRICS economies rival or surpass them.
Point 21: Freezing the line of contact in areas Russia is currently capturing (Zaporizhzhia, Kherson). Russian commanders publicly announce that they are still advancing and intend to liberate all territory they consider part of the new Russian regions—making a “freeze” unacceptable.
The analysts emphasize that Russia is gaining momentum: major towns have recently fallen, defensive lines are collapsing, and Russian manpower advantages (after full mobilization) are becoming decisive. They argue Ukraine is exhausting tens of thousands of soldiers per month and cannot replace them fast enough.
The conclusion:
Russia holds the military advantage, and the West’s plan contains demands Moscow will never accept. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s leadership remains publicly defiant, but privately faces catastrophic military realities on the ground.
Credit to : Daniel Davis / Deep Dive