Danny argues that Western and Ukrainian strategy toward Russia is fundamentally unrealistic. They say Ukraine and Europe insist on a “12‑point plan” that assumes Russia will eventually beg for negotiations, even though Russia holds the stronger position. The speaker claims that when Russia appears willing to negotiate, Ukraine and Europe always interpret it as weakness and respond by demanding more pressure rather than talking — meaning meaningful negotiations never happen.
They point to late 2022 as proof: after Ukraine’s two major battlefield victories (Kherson and Kharkiv), U.S. General Mark Milley publicly suggested that this was the optimal moment for Ukraine to negotiate because Russia was struggling badly. But Zelensky ignored this, believing Ukraine’s momentum would last, even though Russia’s long-term manpower and industrial advantages made a decisive Ukrainian win impossible.
The speaker concludes that Ukraine has repeatedly refused negotiations whenever it had its best chances (April 2022 and November 2022). Because the same leaders are still in charge, they predict Ukraine would again reject talks at any future moment of apparent advantage.
They say a pivotal moment is happening now, with Donald Trump and Viktor Orbán reportedly discussing how to end the war. Orbán is believed to be pushing Trump to halt military aid, pressure Europe and Ukraine into negotiations, and use limited leverage (like sanctions relief) to secure a settlement — not a “good” outcome, but one that stops further destruction.
If the U.S. does not pivot to diplomacy, the speaker argues the war will continue until Russia conquers dramatically more territory — potentially all of southern and eastern Ukraine, including Odessa, Kharkiv, and perhaps even Kyiv — because Russia logically cannot freeze the conflict while NATO re-arms Ukraine.
Thus, the West faces an inflection point: either push for negotiations now, or continue on a path that leads to Ukraine’s destruction and increased risk of a future NATO–Russia war, possibly nuclear. The speaker urges choosing the diplomatic path while there is still time for a “less bad” outcome.
Credit to : Daniel Davis / Deep Dive