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European leaders — including Starmer, Macron, Kaja Kallas, and Ursula von der Leyen, plus the Baltic states — are loudly warning about a Russian threat, even though Europe lacks the military capacity to fight a major war with Russia. According to Alastair Crooke, this rhetoric is not backed by actual capability.
Europe’s Strategy: A “Mini–Pearl Harbor”
Crooke argues Europe may be trying to provoke a small, contained incident (e.g., in the Baltics, near vulnerable sea lanes or cables) that would force the U.S. into a war with Russia, similar to how Pearl Harbor brought the U.S. into WWII.
Europe can’t field large armies, so they might seek a trigger event, not a large-scale conflict.
The Deterrence Dilemma
Russia is unsure how to respond:
Too strong a deterrent (e.g., nuclear threats) could provoke escalation.
Too soft a deterrent looks like weakness.
The line between diplomacy and deterrence is razor-thin.
Crooke cites an Iranian diplomat: too much deterrence or too much diplomacy both risk escalation. A third hazard is stupidity — Western leaders making threats they cannot back up, which could unintentionally invite conflict.
U.S. Is Not Ready for a Major War
The host argues that the U.S. also lacks the capacity to fight a large-scale war with Russia and would likely suffer early heavy losses. Crooke agrees.
Russia’s Concerns About the U.S.
Russia sees:
Trump as unpredictable
The U.S. economy facing serious structural problems
No reliable diplomatic channels
This uncertainty could lead Washington either toward negotiation or toward dangerous lashing out (e.g., against Russia, Iran, or Venezuela).
Russia Believes It Has Lost Deterrence
Western leaders openly dismiss Russia’s threats, which Moscow interprets as a loss of deterrent credibility. Crooke claims it is actually in the West’s interest for Russia to retain credible deterrence—to avoid cornering Russia into extreme responses.
Trump Plan and “Russia Gets Everything It Wants” Narrative
Crooke rejects media claims that Trump’s 28-point plan gives Russia everything:
Russia will not give up territory in Zaporizhzhia or Kherson.
Those regions are now constitutionally part of Russia, approved via referendums.
Putin cannot legally or politically negotiate them away.
And the U.S. proposal ignores Russia’s core demand: resolving the root cause of the war — NATO expansion and the need for a new European security architecture.
Credit to : Daniel Davis / Deep Dive